Coffee Report: 2024’s First-Half Market Status, Trends, and Consumer Behavior

Coffee Production in the Coffee Belt Region: 2023/24 vs 2024/25

In the coffee belt regions, coffee production has been relatively well with a few hurdles. 

Central America and the Caribbean

Central America, including countries like Mexico, enjoyed increased export output at 12.9 million 60kg bags in 2023/24. Of the exported coffee, arabica varietal accounts for 955. However, this is lower than the projected output, which was 16. million bags - with experts attributing this lower harvest to coffee cherry borer pest infestation and coffee rust in the region. 

In the 2024/25 fiscal year, about 13.4 million 60kg bags are expected to be produced in Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Panama - a 500,000 kg bag increase from last year. 

On the other hand, the production in Mexico is expected to increase by 300,000 bags to 3.9 million bags with Nicaragua just behind, at 2.7 million 60kg bags; also, with a 300,000 bag increase.

Latin America

Brazil

Brazil still holds the first place for the leading coffee producer in the world. While the coffee market wavered earlier, the Brazilian coffee sector has managed to recover. Weather challenges have contributed to reduced Brazilian coffee production. Fortunately, the sector has managed to increase its output.

Towards the end of 2023, Brazil ended the year with an interruption of the coffee fruit formation stage due to high-temperature formation. However, sufficient rainfall at the start of the year helped to enhance the final fruit development stage and boost production. 

Brazil’s coffee production is expected to spring up by 3.6 million bags; bringing the total arabica and robusta coffee production to 69.9 million 60 kg bags in the 2024/25 fiscal year. As the largest global coffee producer, Brazil contributes to nearly 40% of global coffee production. 

Thus, the state of Brazilian coffee significantly impacts coffee availability and prices. The current recovery of the Brazilian and (Indonesian) coffee sectors, thanks to the year’s favorable weather patterns. 

Thanks to the improvement, global coffee production is projected to increase by about 7.1 million bags - bringing the total number to 176.2 million 60kg bags. On the other hand, global exports are projected at 123.1 million bags; an increase of about 3.6 million bags.

Colombia

Colombia is behind Brazil in the Latin continent - but, takes the third place as the largest coffee producer globally - behind Brazil and Vietnam. But, globally, Colombia is the second largest arabica coffee producer after Brazil. Like Brazil, Colombia experienced some hurdles in production due to weather challenges. 

But, the market has managed to bounce back. Colombia is another country whose agricultural sector was impacted by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The invasion limited imports of nitrogen, phosphate, and potash; leading to a decline in fertilizer availability. 

The limited fertilizer supply limited coffee production in the country for the 2023/24 fiscal year to only 12.2 million 60kg bags, i.e. 15% less than the previous year. Coffee production for 2024/25 is projected at 12.4 million 60 kg bags - a 200,000 bag increase, but well under the average. This time around, the slow projected increase is attributed to the increase in coffee cherry borer infestations.

Asia

Vietnam

Vietnam had a 29.1 million 60 kg bag production in the 2023/24 fiscal year. However, while the remaining large players in the coffee sector have managed to bounce back, Vietnam’s coffee sector is still struggling. 

The slight delay in the rainy season, high temperatures, and drought contribute to the no-increase projection of 29 million 60kg bag production (95% of it being robusta) for the fiscal year 2024/25. 

The export is expected to drop by nearly 500,000 60kg bags to 24.4. Milipon bags due to the reduced production and increasing domestic consumption. Fortunately, as other large coffee producers around the world are recovering, their reasonable output will help compensate for the reduced Vietnamese coffee production.

Indonesia

Meanwhile, Indonesia holds the second position in Asia, with a 2023/24 coffee production of 8.2 million 60 kg bags. In the previous year, areas like Sumatra and Java suffered excessive rainfall during the cherry development stage and sub-optimal weather during pollination. 

However, the favorable conditions experienced this year so far are promising for the sector; with anticipation of a higher yield. In the 2024/25 fiscal year, there’s more hope with an expected 2.8 million bag bump to 10.9 million bags - with the majority being robusta. While robusta output is expected at 9.5 million with a 2.7 million bag bump, arabica is expected to rise to 1.4 million bags.

India

India, on the other hand, is expected to experience a slight reduction in production by 100,000 bags to 6 million robusta and arabica 60kg bags. While arabica production is expected to drop to about 1.4 million bags, robusta is projected to stay constant at 4.6 million bags. This is due to the poor rains during the pre-monsoon season. Meanwhile, the country is expected to export 4.2 million bags in 2024/25.

Africa

Ethiopia

Ethiopia continues to hold its title as the largest producer and exporter in the region - raking in over a billion dollars in the 2023/24 fiscal year. According to the Ethiopian Coffee and Tea Authority, the country has surpassed its previous export quota - bringing in US$1.3 billion from exporting more than 298,500 tonnes of coffee traded in the 2023/2024 fiscal year. The exported volume surpasses the previous year by 20%.

In Ethiopia, the government has made changes to further boost the country's highly regarded sector. Now, Ethiopian coffee buyers, including foreign coffee companies,  can directly trade with coffee producers in the country after the government revised its trading laws. This move by the government is geared towards giving more autonomy to coffee farmers and allowing them to benefit more, by significantly cutting down the supply chain.

Uganda

Uganda is the second largest producer and exporter - raking in US$ 965.14 million in 2023 and expected to earn. The Uganda Coffee Development Authority (UCDA) is even more ambitious with a 2025 export revenue target of US$1.5 billion. Uganda is a majority robusta producer with very little Arabica production and exports. 

In Uganda, coffee production and exports for the 2023/24 fiscal year were projected at a 4% increase to 6.85 million 60 kg bags and 6.52 million bags, respectively. Favorable weather and high-yielding Robusta seedlings are attributed to this growth, although the lack of Twig Borer and Coffee Red Blister Disease in robusta growing regions did slightly impact the projected numbers. 

Further, unlike neighboring Kenya, the Ugandan government put forth more efforts to reinvigorate the coffee sector helping further grow production and exports. Nonetheless, the country continued to see projected growth in the sector with an expected 6.9 million 60kg bag production in 2024/25 years. The sector saw a projected increase in exports to 6.58 million bags.

Ivory Coast

Ivory Coast, once a contender in robusta production on the continent and the largest in West Africa, is experiencing a gradual decline in coffee production. Reports suggest a projected steady decline in production from 1.95 million 60kg million bags produced in 2023 to 1.94 million bags by 2028 - a 0.1% year-on-year decline. According to experts, this is attributed to aging coffee plants, virtually non-existent government intervention, and more focus on cocoa production.

Tanzania

Tanzania is the fourth largest exporter in the continent. In Tanzania, coffee production was projected at 1.4 million 60-kg bags in 2023/24 - with a 100,000 spike to 1.5 million bags in 2024/25. Export projections were also high at 1.27 million 60kg bags in 2023/24 and 1.31 million bags in 2024/24. 

While the country has a large number of older crops, the government has made the initiative to rehabilitate existing coffee farmers and support local farmers; helping further boost production.

Kenya

In Kenya, things aren’t looking positive in the 2024/25 fiscal year. Coffee production was forecasted to increase by 6.7% to 800,000 kg bags for the 2023/24 fiscal year. On the other hand, exports were projected at 760,000 bags - a 5.5% increase. 

Unfortunately, various factors, including changes made by the government, have impacted coffee production, massively reducing yields. This has led to a disappointing forecast for the 2024/25 fiscal year, with an expected 6.3% decrease in production at 750,000 60 kg bags and 720,000 60 kg bags to be exported. 

Factors include farmers ditching coffee farming for more profitable crops, limited extension support to farmers, and even new licensing requirements put forth by the government; which had led many mills to shut down.

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)

With the ongoing conflict, the sector in DRC continues to suffer.  Without adequate intervention, the sector will continue to falter. Reports suggest that production in the country will drop to a further 1.5% year-on-year, reaching 327,000 60kg bags by 2028/29 - from 327,000 bags in 2023/24.

However, coffee farmers in the DRC have received some glitter of hope in reinvigorating the coffee sector. Coffee giant, Nespresso, has committed US$20 million to revive the country’s specialty coffee industry and to support the coffee-growing community. 

DRC coffee is noted for its distinct flavor - in fact, the country was one of Africa’s largest coffee exporters (up to 120, 000 tonnes annually). DRC is also among the Indigenous origins of robusta coffee - which the region excels in growing. 

Unfortunately, years of conflict and foreign intervention have damaged the country’s agricultural sector and caused economic stability. DRC’s misfortunes see the country exporting less than 10% of what it used to - and even worse, most of it is through illegal routes. 

This doesn't just affect the country’s revenue generation but fuels unequal treatment and profit-making for the local coffee producers. Fortunately, however, coffee is among the few commodities less likely to be damaged during conflict, unlike livestock or other agricultural products, according to the NGO, Technoserve.

Nespresso’s Reviving Origins Program intends to support farmers impacted by the conflict, economic issues, and other related problems; helping restore the sector into a sustainable one. 

Nespresso has already begun to implement this effort, focusing on the Eastern Congo Kivu state where most of the coffee in the country grows. According to Nespresso, the initial US$20 million will be invested into coffee itself while the company also plans on raising another $20 million for growing communities. 

Ultimately, the Reviving Communities series will cover coffee purchases, price premiums, community projects, technical assistance, and support coffee farmers to access global markets.

Coffee Imports: Performance in the Largest Markets

In the European Union, coffee imports are projected at 47.5 million 60kg bags; an increase of up to 2 million 60kg bags due to higher outputs from Brazil and Indonesia. The higher production output from these two countries has helped fill up the vacuum created by limited production in Vietnam. 

In the 2023/24 calendar, Brazil stood at the top as Europe’s largest coffee supplier; supplying over 36% of the total coffee imports into the continent. Other top suppliers were Vietnam (25%), Uganda(85%), and Honduras (7%).

The United States is the second largest global importer of coffee; and is forecasted to receive 24.5 million bags in 2024/25 - a 900,000 bag hike. In the US, the largest suppliers include Brazil (27%), Colombia (19%), Vietnam (11%), and Guatemala (6%).

Coffee Demand Report

According to reports, the global specialty coffee market is expected to grow significantly at an 11.8% rate from 2024 to 2033. This rate is expected to bring the market’s value to US$76.88 billion. Across the world, coffee consumption, particularly specialty coffee, is growing exponentially - with a growing number of consumers even within coffee-producing regions. 

This growing demand is associated with changing consumer tastes, behavioral trends by millennials who love aromatic beverages, and the increase in sustainable practices. In return, many in the coffee sector are also grabbing the opportunity; with an increasing number of cafes, cold brew, and ready-to-drink products. 

With such a growing potential in the market, the specialty coffee sector offers opportunities for stakeholders to segment and niche down their markets to enjoy better opportunities. In particular, the rise of subscription services also serves as an impressive business opportunity. You will even notice a growing number of celebrity-owned and backed coffee brands in recent years.

Unfortunately, however, coffee exporters, sellers, and wholesale buyers still experience hurdles in fluctuating prices. Issues, such as climate change, ever-evolving weather conditions, pest infestations, and even regional conflicts contribute to the impact on production. 

Currently, Vietnam serves as an unfortunate example; with its struggling sector due to unfavorable weather. While Brazil and Indonesia have helped to bridge this gap, thanks to their region’s improving weather, these issues continue to impact prices and production output that may not meet the growing demand.

Coffee Demand in the US

Meanwhile, coffee demand is at an all-time 20-year high in the US according to the 2024 Spring National Coffee Data Trends (NCDT) Report. According to the NCDT report:

• Adult coffee consumers have grown by 37% since 2004
• 67% of US adults had coffee the previous day more than other beverages compared to 49% in 2004
• 75% of US adults coffee the previous week
• Americans aged 25+ are the largest consumers of coffee
• Americans aged 60+ had the largest increase in consumption since 2004
• Specialty coffee consumption grew by 57% - with espresso-based beverages, particularly lattes (enjoyed by 18% of US adults), espresso(16%), and cappuccinos (15%) being the most loved.
• At home, drip coffee makers(37%), single-cup brewers(28%), RTD coffee (15%), and espresso machines are the most popular.

Coffee Consumer Behavior and Trends

Meanwhile, another study by Circana has shown a growing interest in coffee consumption among drinkers in several European, North American, and Asian countries. The combined coffee consumption of these 12 examined countries alone has suggested a massive potential year-on-year growth of the market by 5%; and a market value of up to $36 billion. Countries include the United States, Canada, Great Britain, Spain, France, Italy, Germany, Australia, China, Japan, South Korea, and Brazil. 

The study further suggests a growing interest in the future; with more consumption projected to happen. A rarity in the past, coffee has now become the second most consumed beverage in the world, after water, with a 4% growth. Cold brew coffee is also rising in popularity; with China taking the lead with a 20% compound annual growth rate. The Chinese cold brew market accounts for one-third ( 33%) of the total coffee consumed in the country.

Expected and Upcoming Changes in the Global Coffee Market

The recently passed EU law, European Union Deforestation Rules (EUDR), is expected to bring massive changes in the global coffee sector - when it comes to sustainable coffee farming.

 As the law suggests, the EUDR is expected to help tackle global deforestation by setting standards and requirements for all coffee that will be imported into the region. The EUDR is expected to be implemented by 30th December 2024. 

While this is a promising move for environmental activists, many stakeholders in the sector have called for a delay in the implementation of the law. These include large coffee companies, such as Nestle and Lavazza, importers of European coffee, and even American lawmakers.

According to the calls, the implementation of the bill is too fast-paced and will impact coffee producers at the lowest end of the supply chain. This will further delay efforts in fighting poverty and boosting sustainable practices within the coffee sector. 

According to stakeholders who oppose the early implementation of the bill, many of the coffee-producing regions do not have the resources to quickly implement the changes required by the law; although the law is important in itself. Thus, many calls have been made for a delay in the implementation of the EUDR. 

Meanwhile, some countries have taken the initiative to prepare for the expected law implementation. For instance, Uganda’s Coffee Development Authority (UCDA) has invested nearly US$10 million in registering farmers for EUDR compliance, ensuring easy traceability and compliance with the law.

Global Coffee Sector’s Commitment to Sustainability 

Many stakeholders in the coffee industry continue to make their own commitments to sustainability and ensure greener practices to safeguard the environment. This year, large conglomerates, such as Nestle, have partnered with educational institutions to further enhance these efforts. 

A partnership between Nestle and Nanyang Technological University in China has created a new database that identifies climate-resilient coffee varieties and species. The partnership leverages the latest AI technology and data science to also breed more resilient species that would support sustainable farming while circumventing the increasing climate-related problems that impact coffee production. 

According to studies, the arabica bean varietal is at more risk of the effects of climate change as it loses more suitable land and favorable conditions for growth. However, the increase in pest infestations is also seen as a threat to the coffee sector.

Meanwhile, several coffee research institutions, as part of the World Coffee Research Innovea Network, have planted 5,000 seedlings for the first field trials and evaluation. These seedlings are expected to offer improved genetics to help transform the future of coffee farming sustainability.

Even coffee cooperatives around the world are taking their own initiative to green coffee farming. Brazil’s Cerrado Mineiro region’s cooperative, Expocacer, for example, has taken the initiative to boost clean and green coffee production. The cooperative has committed to doubling regenerative coffee production by 2027 through organic farming and soil health regeneration. 

This, in turn, will help protect soil biodiversity, build climate resistance, and protect water resources, while ensuring productive, sustainable, and profitable farming. As of 2023, the cooperative generated 14,000kWh of solar power and recycled more than half a ton of coffee waste.